The Nordic energy market changed direction last week, and following a couple of weeks of price falls we experienced an uptrend instead. It was the short-term forward market in particular that experienced increases as a result of changed weather forecasts and a weakened hydro-balance. The hydro-balance has dropped back to a deficit again now that the forecasts indicate precipitation volumes below average for most of July. When the market closed on Monday, the Q4-19 contract cost EUR 39.95/MWh, EUR 2.55/MWh more than last week. The YR-20 contract increased by EUR 1.15/MWh to EUR 37.15/MWh.
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The European carbon emission market has made a new big price jump, and we could see the price on a CO2 quota break above 30 EUR/t in the near future.
We experienced a clear change to the Nordic weather forecasts last week, and the rest of July now looks set to be very dry. This has caused Nordic energy prices to climb, especially in the short-term forward market.