Following recent price climbs, the Nordic energy market has changed direction again and we are now seeing significant price falls at the start of August. A strengthened hydro-balance is having an impact, in particular on the short-term contracts in the forward market, where the price falls are largest. Following an extremely dry July, the start of August is showing major adjustments to the forecasts for precipitation and overall water reservoir levels. When the market closed on Monday, the Q4-19 contract cost EUR 39.60/MWh, which is more than EUR 3/MWh less than last week. The YR-20 contract has fallen by approximately EUR 1.5/MWh to EUR 36.28/MWh.
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The price falls in the long-term contracts in the energy market continued last week, with both coal and carbon emission prices dropping down another notch. However, the short-term contracts are staying put as a result of dry weather forecasts.